Note: This is an rework of my 2022 article, “NFL Trades and their Fantasy Impact”
This week saw some huge NFL trades. Star wide receiver Davante Adams was traded from the Raiders to the Jets, reuniting him with Aaron Rodgers. Shortly after, Amari Cooper was traded from the Browns to the Bills. Both trades were notable in that they featured talented wide receivers getting substantial quarterback upgrades.
Predictably, these trades have excited Fantasy Football owners. Both Adams and Cooper have been performing poorly, and trades to stud quarterbacks could turn their seasons around. However, midseason trades can be tricky. It’s not easy to adapt to a new team. Learning a totally new playbook and gelling with new teammates is tough, and midseason trade targets don’t have an offseason or training camp to do those things.
With all that being said, let’s look at past midseason trades to statistically assess the fantasy impact of NFL trades. I looked at all trades since 2002, and restricted the analysis to Running Backs (RBs) and Wide Receivers (WRs). I exclude other fantasy relevant positions (namely Quarterbacks and Tight Ends) because in-season Quarterback trades are exceedingly rare, and the Tight End position has undergone dramatic evolution in recent years.
Additionally, I attempt to only look at “fantasy-relevant” players. As a result, I only analyze RBs that averaged more than 6 fantasy points per game (fppg) in the prior season or pre-trade. Similarly, I only analyze WRs that averaged more than 8fppg in the prior season or pre-trade. I also only analyze players that played at least 2 games before and after their trade. After these restrictions, I have a dataset of 16 WRs and 14 RBs. This is a small dataset, but we can still try to take a look at patterns. All figures assume 0.5 PPR scoring.
Impact of trades on WRs
Here, we see that Wide Receivers tend to do worse after they are traded mid-season. Only 37.5% of traded WRs improved after being traded, and the median WR scores 10.5% fewer fantasy points after being traded.
Impact of trades on RBs
Looking at RBs tells a different story. Runningbacks tend to do better after they are traded mid-season. Over 64% of traded RBs improved after being traded, and the median RB scores 6.8% more fantasy points after being traded. There are a couple of standouts here — Christian McCaffrey and Kenyan Drake come to mind. Both of them were league-winners after being traded
Conclusions
Although our sample size is pretty small, I found this analysis pretty interesting. The results also kind of make sense. In broad terms, it is generally easier for a runningback to plug into a new offense, compared to wide receivers who often need to learn totally new routes and become familiar with a new quarterback.
That being said, there is probably some good news for people excited about this year’s trades. Amari Cooper has already been traded midseason, and he performed admirably afterwards — his fantasy production increased by 60%. And Davante Adams doesn’t need to worry about becoming familiar with a new quarterback or offense. He had his best years with Aaron Rodgers, and the Jets Offensive Coordinator also worked with them in Green Bay.
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